First and most importantly, Christian Lindner is leaving politics. This is quite upsetting. He was far and away the prettiest political leader in the Bundestag. The nightly news bulletin is going to be a lot less sexy from now on.
But it is hilarious to see how well the FDP’s grand scheme to get a head-start in the election by blowing up the government worked out for them. Stay fucked off, assholes.
Even more interesting is the BSW. So Sara Wagenknecht, long suffering from a Messiah complex, decided to split Die Linke in two to make a new racist left party named after herself. For a while it looked like the old Die Linke was done, there were basically no ex-Communists left who weren’t also racist. But no, Die Linke had a huge night while BSW also failed to make 5% (just). This means the version of Die Linke remaining is the part that made a stand against racism and personality cults. Sara Wagenknecht is now the proud leader of a regional party that might be a minor coalition party in one or two of the less important East-German states.
Does this mean Die Linke are now a viable party for my vote? No. They never really made a clean break with the SED, and those guys sure did shoot a lot of people. They’re also firmly still in Putin’s pocket. Their speeches about war not solving anything make me squirm with cognitive dissonance, so I’m glad to have them in the Bundestag. But I won’t be voting for them.
So now there needs to be a coaltion. The big question is, will Merz give up on democracy and partner with the AfD, or will he hold the line? I’m inclined to think he will hold the line. There was a big fuss about the immigration bill in January, when Merz introduced a law change that he knew damn well would only pass with support from the AfD. The non-binding vote passed, but the actual bill failed, and there were huge rallies and strong criticism. That was not a positive experience for Merz.
I also think Merz’s personality matters a lot here. He sees himself as the rational teller of hard truths, a habitual suit-wearer who has the kind of sensible perspective you can only get by growing up rich. He’s used to telling people off, and that’s why CDU voters like him. He’s not gonna debase himself before a bunch of Ossis, and he will never risk getting kicked out of his club.
But if not the AfD, then who? The SPD is a no-brainer, and the SPD trying to pretend they’re only semi-interested isn’t gonna fool anyone. But they need a third partner. With only five parties in the Bundestag, it’s either the Greens or Die Linke. And I mean… Die Linke? Really? But Marcus Söder has ruled out the Greens on exactly the same terms as Merz ruled out the AfD. It’s pretty clear that the CSU would far, far rather ally with the AfD than the Greens.
I think the most likely outcome is a minority government of CDU/CSU and SPD, with a gentleman’s agreement with the Greens to pass legislation. But as soon as we get a repeat of the immigration law it’ll all fall apart and we’ll need a new election.
Is there any chance that the AfD will collapse? I think so. I truly believe they are only doing as well as they are because of Alice Weidel. Basically, your racist fascist party can only do well with a female leader. You and I might know that female politicians are just as vicious as their male counterparts. But the racist fascist segment of the electorate is also patriarchal, and thinks that voting for a woman makes them seem “softer”. If Alice Weidel ever gets sick of being a figurehead of a party that doesn’t respect her, or if she slips up, there’s only men left to take over. And then it’s just too obvious what you’re doing when you vote for them. But I must admit Alice will probably still be there at the next election.
The most encouraging thing that’s happened is Friedrich Merz starting off with such a strongly anti-Trump line. This makes sense. Other politicians are sucking up to Trump, but that’s never gonna actually work with Merz. Bear with me here, but, Trump actually works on charm. He can by all accounts be charming in person when he wants to be, and he wants to be when people try to charm him. That’s what Starmer and Albanese are doing. But Merz has all the charm and grace of a tax demand. And he likes that. It’s part of his identity. He could never possibly suck up to Trump even if he tried. His only path is to be Trump’s enemy. And I think that will set the tone for the next government, and the next election.
I do believe that Merz doesn’t desire power for its own sake. Rather, he is motivated by the worry that there are people out there who are not miserable, and he’s sure that he is the one who can fix that. This is why there is zero chance of him doing something about the Schuldenbremse. And that means the next government will preside over a German economy that continues to slip beneath the waterline. Something has to change, and I don’t think this election result is that something.